Last fact-check: September 28, 2026. Availability and legal treatment depend on product, market, and jurisdiction. Check the platform’s current rules before participating.
What a prediction-market price means
A binary contract that pays one unit if an event occurs will generally trade between zero and one. Traders often read the price as an implied probability, but fees, liquidity, spreads, settlement rules, and participant bias can push the market away from a clean forecast.
Platforms to compare
Polymarket
Polymarket offers crypto-native event markets with order-book trading across politics, economics, sports, and other topics. Read each market’s resolution source and edge cases before trading; the headline question is not the full contract.
Kalshi
Kalshi offers regulated event contracts in the United States. Its product structure, funding methods, eligibility, and market catalog differ from crypto-native platforms, so compare the actual contract and fee schedule rather than treating the venues as interchangeable.
Azuro
Azuro is infrastructure for onchain prediction applications, with a strong emphasis on sports and third-party front ends. Users should evaluate both the underlying protocol and the interface they use.
Limitless
Limitless offers onchain markets with its own listing, liquidity, and resolution mechanics. Smaller markets can carry wider spreads and greater exit risk.
How to evaluate a market
- Read the resolution rules. Identify the exact source, deadline, wording, and treatment of ambiguous outcomes.
- Inspect liquidity and spread. A displayed probability is less useful if a modest order materially moves the book.
- Calculate total cost. Include fees, spread, funding/on-ramp costs, and the cost of exiting early.
- Check jurisdiction and eligibility. Access rules can differ by location and may change.
- Size for a total loss. A losing binary contract can expire worthless.
Prediction market versus sportsbook
A prediction market lets participants trade contracts whose prices move with supply and demand. A sportsbook generally quotes odds and acts as the counterparty. The economic exposure may look similar, but regulation, settlement, liquidity, and fees can differ materially.
Bottom line
Prediction markets are useful for aggregating beliefs and trading event risk, but the contract language matters more than the headline. Favor clear resolution criteria and sufficient liquidity over exciting but ambiguous markets.
Primary sources
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